Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 24.434283 29.216748 34.462260 40.613396 47.598405 55.253379 64.245556
2025-07-27 17.908107 24.325433 32.052621 41.911970 54.018043 68.255446 86.112060
2025-08-03 14.104079 21.216423 30.427256 42.946151 59.208289 79.296659 105.631278
2025-08-10 10.991387 18.171208 28.102713 42.368361 61.807150 86.815718 120.794953
2025-08-17 9.025290 16.248474 26.839586 42.792307 65.417536 95.510835 137.592578
2025-08-24 7.372331 14.431532 25.379847 42.621196 67.987744 102.752919 152.623086
2025-08-31 5.806697 12.418942 23.288476 41.192509 68.506178 107.044027 163.691287
2025-09-07 4.969655 11.472061 22.700338 41.894289 72.047508 115.588754 180.831131
2025-09-14 4.020451 10.113372 21.221936 40.986345 73.015358 120.397156 192.815037
2025-09-21 3.522332 9.524381 20.969231 42.000735 76.934348 129.601779 211.345211
2025-09-28 2.746123 8.172980 19.142648 40.146753 76.127814 131.658406 219.480249
2025-10-05 2.447451 7.810383 19.111196 41.379030 80.341672 141.435978 239.285134
2025-10-12 2.116187 7.334396 18.874509 42.369650 84.470467 151.661671 260.786767
2025-10-19 1.855846 6.976107 18.839434 43.750743 89.390726 163.426073 285.210402
2025-10-26 1.609211 6.581536 18.661580 44.823248 93.813338 174.555380 309.022460
2025-11-02 1.293479 5.880036 17.688593 44.225827 95.217963 180.832737 325.469522
2025-11-09 1.090998 5.452259 17.264856 44.664347 98.470384 190.217196 347.058805
2025-11-16 0.892046 4.955260 16.585355 44.487364 100.547403 197.689099 365.797998
2025-11-23 0.677225 4.294153 15.364787 43.009444 100.055361 200.760969 377.498909
2025-11-30 0.578182 4.042094 15.166214 43.735454 103.787522 211.158188 401.398202
2025-12-07 0.446607 3.572025 14.275719 42.796146 104.194107 215.776932 415.894571
2025-12-14 0.387970 3.414324 14.248775 43.845567 108.584659 227.517347 442.527260
2025-12-21 0.277054 2.897622 13.034120 41.927418 106.847934 228.283605 450.746082